In terms of delay, DVDs don’t materialize out of thin air, so a little bit of waiting the first time you stream a movie is fine. As hard drives get bigger and bigger, you’ll only ever need to wait once.

Finally, I realize that computers aren’t for everyone. The best thing blu-ray has going for it is that it works just like a DVD. Still, a person who is intimidated by say, a TIVO (which, incidentally, can stream movies if you’re a Netflix subscriber), probably isn’t clamoring for a new blu-ray player either. In the meantime, millions of Netflix users, and tens of millions of iTunes users, will get more and more comfortable downloading their movies, even those without HDTVs.

However… might the DVD Gods survive (if not thrive?) if enough people are uneducated about their options, or too technophobic or busy to embrace the alternative to Blu-ray? You might be surprised about how little people know about computers, especially people who are older than 30. My mom barely knows how to turn a computer on, let alone does she know how to download movies. She can do email and surf the web and that’s about it. And she’s not dumb, but merely representative of millions of Americans who didn’t touch a computer until they were well into adulthood. These sorts of people are usually much more comfortable popping a disc into a player than tinkering with a computer.

Furthermore, how many people understand the importance of backing up data? Way too few, I would guess. For these people, the vulnerability of DVDs is not much of an issue because they’re not really thinking about it in the first place.

Another thing that occurs to me is that some people like to build collections of PHYSICAL things, like books or coins or stamps. Some people (and at one point I was dumb enough to be one) like to have a library of DVDs that they can put on display in their bedroom or something. This act is an expression of who they are (by means of what they like) that naturally self-centered people love to share with anyone who will afford them the chance. Downloading a bunch of movies and songs onto a hard drive and then placing it on a bookshelf cannot serve the function of self-expression.

My point is, while I think you’re right that Blu-ray should die (or perhaps shouldn’t have even been born in the first place), there’s a decent chance it will live a healthy life. It’s fate hinges on whether or not people know enough to take the better route. It’s not clear that enough people do.

Yes, DVD’s can be scratched and they have DRM issues, but it’s far more easier to watch from a DVD than to stream it over a network or read from a HD. While I prefer to stream things, I would like to have a DVD at my finer tips too.

While they may not take off this year or next, they might eventually take off.